This "Presidential Debate" is absolutely brutal.
Neither one of them are answering any of the damn questions.
Leher specifically asked each candidate what are they going to cut out of thier budgets and programs to help accomodate that probable, supposed $700 billion buy-out, and they spent (no pun intended) more time talking about what they want to do. Be a leader!!! Be a Maverick!!! Bring change!!! SOMEONE...ANYONE
AND THEN LEHER HIT THEM ON IT!!!!
"Neither one of you have said what you would do to make up for this buyout"
"One of you will come into office in January and be staring down one of the biggest and toughest times our country as ever faced."
AND THE BOTH GO BACK TO PARTISAN POLITICS.
"We have to do this..." "I want to do this..." healthcare, education, defense, blah, blah, blah...
And then Lehere says let me ask you the same question a different way to try and get an answer...
The poor guy can't get a straight answer from either one of these chumps, and one of them will be President.....
*sigh*
Hey, did you know that McCain is a Maverick?
Did you know that McCain agreed with Bush 90% of the time?
Did you know that Barack Obama is the most far left voting Senator?
Did you know that John McCain was a war hero?
Did you know McCain was for the war?
Did you know that Barack opposed the war from the beginning?
Do you know what John or Barack are going to do to solve the current crisis?
What are they going to do to maybe balance the budget?
Do we know what actual leadership qualities either of these guys bring to the table?
Why am I still watching this circus show?
PoliForum
Friday, September 26, 2008
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
State of the presidential race
I've largely stayed out of the fray of political polls and who's predicted to win what.
Until now.
Real Clear Politics has some excellent analysis that formed the primary basis for my analysis.
If the election were to be held today and all polls were true - even those where the candidates are tied or within one or two percentage points - Obama would win.
This map offers a much more accurate picture of where we currently stand.
Personally, I think the only states that are truly undecided are Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
And if I really had to predict right now how I think the election will play out, here it is.
Here's my analysis of all of the current toss-up states (defined as having an average margin of less than 5% between the candidates in current presidential polls).
Nevada - slightly too conservative for Obama to win, and McCain has a good relationship with the Hispanic population, which doesn't tend to be as kind to black candidates at the polls. Additionally, McCain is from a bordering state and Palin is also from the West.
Colorado - see "Nevada" above. (This is very shaky though.)
New Mexico - many attributes of the two above states apply, but New Mexico has been a much tougher bid for conservatives. It went for Kerry, then for Bush, with both elections decided by less than 1%. I don't think McCain will spend as many resources here and it will swing Obama's way.
Minnesota - sure, it's a 2-point (negligible) lead for Obama now, but are we really kidding ourselves? Minnesota couldn't even vote for Reagan. There's no way our state is voting for McCain-Palin.
Michigan - I think Michigan has a decent chance to swing McCain's way thanks for the large blue collar population. With the problems black Democratic Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick has had lately, there's speculation that there may be a statewide disassociation with the black Democrat on the presidential ticket. However, I don't think it would be enough to upset Obama's slim lead here. Michigan is union country, and we all know which way the unions go...
Ohio - in many ways, Ohio is similar to Michigan. However, it has traditionally been much friendlier to Republicans than Michigan has been, and I think it will trend that way in 2008. McCain has done well here over the last few months, particularly in the blue collar areas of the southeast where many analysts think race may be a sad factor working against Obama.
Pennsylvania - see "Michigan" above. McCain has pulled to within a virtual dead-heat and it's not entirely unheard of for a Republican to win statewide office, but the state has been Democratic for the last few years and I just don't see that changing. There's too much Northeast Liberal influence here. Besides, Joe Biden lives near the border in Delaware and was born in Scranton, PA. Obama will carry it.
Virginia - the only state in an actual tie right now (48-48), it will break McCain's way. It's similar to Ohio in its historic friendliness to Republicans, and while Democrats have made significant gains statewide over the last 2 years, I don't think the state will break Democratic in a national election. It's got too much of the conservative south in it.
New Hampshire - much like Pennsylvania, it's not unheard of for Republicans to win here. Bush carried the state in 2000, Kerry in 2004. But, also like Pennsylvania, it's in the heart of the Northeast and won't be able to resist the urge to go the way of its neighbors.
There you have it. I predict a McCain win. Actually, once I was done doing my state-by-state analysis, I was sure I had predicted an Obama win. I was really surprised to see McCain come out on top in my prediction.
I think the race will really come down to Colorado, which is the only state I predicted would fall differently than it's currently polling (it leans towards Obama by .6%). If Obama is able to get enough of the young evangelical Colorado Springs-type crowd on his side, he wins the state and the election. I don't think it will happen.
But there's a LOT of election to go...
Until now.
Real Clear Politics has some excellent analysis that formed the primary basis for my analysis.
If the election were to be held today and all polls were true - even those where the candidates are tied or within one or two percentage points - Obama would win.
This map offers a much more accurate picture of where we currently stand.
Personally, I think the only states that are truly undecided are Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
And if I really had to predict right now how I think the election will play out, here it is.
Here's my analysis of all of the current toss-up states (defined as having an average margin of less than 5% between the candidates in current presidential polls).
Nevada - slightly too conservative for Obama to win, and McCain has a good relationship with the Hispanic population, which doesn't tend to be as kind to black candidates at the polls. Additionally, McCain is from a bordering state and Palin is also from the West.
Colorado - see "Nevada" above. (This is very shaky though.)
New Mexico - many attributes of the two above states apply, but New Mexico has been a much tougher bid for conservatives. It went for Kerry, then for Bush, with both elections decided by less than 1%. I don't think McCain will spend as many resources here and it will swing Obama's way.
Minnesota - sure, it's a 2-point (negligible) lead for Obama now, but are we really kidding ourselves? Minnesota couldn't even vote for Reagan. There's no way our state is voting for McCain-Palin.
Michigan - I think Michigan has a decent chance to swing McCain's way thanks for the large blue collar population. With the problems black Democratic Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick has had lately, there's speculation that there may be a statewide disassociation with the black Democrat on the presidential ticket. However, I don't think it would be enough to upset Obama's slim lead here. Michigan is union country, and we all know which way the unions go...
Ohio - in many ways, Ohio is similar to Michigan. However, it has traditionally been much friendlier to Republicans than Michigan has been, and I think it will trend that way in 2008. McCain has done well here over the last few months, particularly in the blue collar areas of the southeast where many analysts think race may be a sad factor working against Obama.
Pennsylvania - see "Michigan" above. McCain has pulled to within a virtual dead-heat and it's not entirely unheard of for a Republican to win statewide office, but the state has been Democratic for the last few years and I just don't see that changing. There's too much Northeast Liberal influence here. Besides, Joe Biden lives near the border in Delaware and was born in Scranton, PA. Obama will carry it.
Virginia - the only state in an actual tie right now (48-48), it will break McCain's way. It's similar to Ohio in its historic friendliness to Republicans, and while Democrats have made significant gains statewide over the last 2 years, I don't think the state will break Democratic in a national election. It's got too much of the conservative south in it.
New Hampshire - much like Pennsylvania, it's not unheard of for Republicans to win here. Bush carried the state in 2000, Kerry in 2004. But, also like Pennsylvania, it's in the heart of the Northeast and won't be able to resist the urge to go the way of its neighbors.
There you have it. I predict a McCain win. Actually, once I was done doing my state-by-state analysis, I was sure I had predicted an Obama win. I was really surprised to see McCain come out on top in my prediction.
I think the race will really come down to Colorado, which is the only state I predicted would fall differently than it's currently polling (it leans towards Obama by .6%). If Obama is able to get enough of the young evangelical Colorado Springs-type crowd on his side, he wins the state and the election. I don't think it will happen.
But there's a LOT of election to go...
Monday, September 15, 2008
Friday, September 5, 2008
Convention McCain speech summary
I was blogging from my phone, which meant my convention posts were actually emails sent to an email address I set up for my other blog. Those emails are then converted into posts. I just realized I could have set up an email address with PoliForum too...sorry guys!
Anyway, I've got a number of posts over at Wide White already, so I won't repeat all of them here. I will cross-post my thoughts on McCain's speech below though, as that was the keynote address of the evening. I simply wrote down my thoughts in real time throughout the speech, so it's not really an entirely cohesive summary. Also, I was pecking this out on my phone, so I tried to keep things as succinct as possible and probably screwed up some of the sentences.
Anyway, I've got a number of posts over at Wide White already, so I won't repeat all of them here. I will cross-post my thoughts on McCain's speech below though, as that was the keynote address of the evening. I simply wrote down my thoughts in real time throughout the speech, so it's not really an entirely cohesive summary. Also, I was pecking this out on my phone, so I tried to keep things as succinct as possible and probably screwed up some of the sentences.
The part of the video with "John McCain is" followed by McCain's mom interjecting "Mama's boy" was great. He loves to use his mother to convince people he isn't as old as he seems, and it was just funny.
WOW!! McCain just walked out and you just can't help but feel like you're part of something big. I suppose that's just the nature of events like this, but it's still pretty cool.
A few protesters have proven very effective at disrupting the speech. The chants of "USA" are obviously intended to drown out the protesters.
I can just see the "We lost their trust" line being used by the Obama campaign in an ad and campaign speeches against McCain. The point is good and needs to be made, but I have a feeling it will be spun against him.
I'm not sure how effective the compare/contrast "I will.../My opponent will..." really is. It just seems a little too political, partisan, and over-simplified for a speech essentially meant to attract the undecided voters.
Choice in education is great, but I'm not sure how it relates to the federal government. It shouldn't relate to the federal government. I don't like this portion of the speech at all. Yes, it all sounds good, but much of what he discussed isn't handled by the federal government and it shouldn't be.
"I have that record and the scars to prove it. Senator Obama does not." It's a well-worn theme, but still one he has to successfully sell.
The schtick about not caring who gets the credit for accomplishments in Washington is a little empty if you ask me. It's a great ideal, but seriously, elections (including this one) are always about who can take credit for what. I don't think I've seen one that didn't involve that.
Ouch! The piece about not running to save his country in its hour of need is an obvious direct hit on Obama. We've heard that line from a few people tonight.
The guy next to me likes to let out a really bad "huzzaahhh!!" when he feels like it's a big moment.
I'm sure everyone at home heard the last few paragraphs of the speech, but the applause was so deafening I couldn't hear a thing. I imagine it's tough to keep talking, knowing that no one in the building can hear you but that everyone at home can and that the effect of the applause while you speak makes it that much more electric for viewers at home. It makes me feel a little bit for Howard Dean's "Dean Scream" in 2004.
The speech has been over for 10 minutes and they're still dumping balloons and clapping and rocking out. It's crazy. And the McCain and Palin families have left.
John Boehner is speaking...I guess he's just introducing the pastor who's giving the benediction. I'm not sure how he's going to be heard above the deafening noise of the balloons popping. He's going to try though. Wow. As soon as he started praying, everyone shut up.
Boehner is wrapping up the formalities and it's a wrap.
All in all, not a bad speech by McCain, but I think any bump in the polls he received will be due more to Palin than to him.
I'm heading home.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Straight from the convention
As posted here, I have credentials to cover the RNC in St. Paul tonight, live and in person. Any immediate posts will be over at Wide White, but I'll try to cross-post some things once I'm back either late tonight or tomorrow.
Bristol Palin
I do not have the freedom to offer my opinion very often in this format, but I think the following two cents is pretty safe.
Some things are political and some things are not. The recent attention being paid to Sarah Palin's daughter is ridiculous.
Watching Governor Palin's convention acceptance speech, I was frustrated by the frequency with which the networks kept switching to a shot of Bristol Palin. Bristol Palin's pregnancy is none of our business. Bristol Palin will not be a member of the cabinet, or a policy advisor. This is truly a family affair and to keep bringing it up is an unhealthy, unhelpful conversation.
The media needs to get their nose out of the Palin household. The story has been reported, let's move on and leave the family to deal with something that thousands of American families struggle with all the time. None of these thousands of families would like a big d@mned TV camera poked into their private afairs.
Some things are political and some things are not. The recent attention being paid to Sarah Palin's daughter is ridiculous.
Watching Governor Palin's convention acceptance speech, I was frustrated by the frequency with which the networks kept switching to a shot of Bristol Palin. Bristol Palin's pregnancy is none of our business. Bristol Palin will not be a member of the cabinet, or a policy advisor. This is truly a family affair and to keep bringing it up is an unhealthy, unhelpful conversation.
The media needs to get their nose out of the Palin household. The story has been reported, let's move on and leave the family to deal with something that thousands of American families struggle with all the time. None of these thousands of families would like a big d@mned TV camera poked into their private afairs.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
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